Graphical Trajectory Comparison to Identify Errors in Data of COVID-19: A Cross-Country Analysis.

Data from the early stage of a novel infectious disease outbreak provide vital information in risk assessment, prediction, and precise disease management. Since the first reported case of COVID-19, the pattern of the novel coronavirus transmission in Wuhan has become the interest of researchers in epidemiology and public health. To thoroughly map the mechanism of viral spreading, we used the patterns of data at the early onset of COVID-19 from seven countries to estimate the time lag between peak days of cases and deaths. This study compared these data with those of Wuhan and estimated the natural history of disease across the infected population and the time lag. The findings suggest that comparative analyses of data from different regions and countries reveal the differences between peaks of cases and deaths caused by COVID-19 and the incomplete and underestimated cases in Wuhan. Different countries may show different patterns of cases peak days, deaths peak days, and peak periods. Error in the early COVID-19 statistics in Brazil was identified. This study provides sound evidence for policymakers to understand the local circumstances in diagnosing the health of a population and propose precise and timely public health interventions to control and prevent infectious diseases.

Democracy and case fatality rate of COVID-19 at early stage of pandemic: a multicountry study.

Many studies have evaluated factors that influence the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in different countries. This multicountry study assessed the influence of democracy and other factors on the case fatality rate of COVID-19 during the early stage of the pandemic. We accessed the World Health Organization, World Bank, and the Democracy Index 2019 databases for data from the 148 countries. Multiple analyses were conducted to examine the association between the Democracy Index and case fatality rate of COVID-19. Within 148 countries, the percentage of the population aged 65 years and above (p = 0.0193), and health expenditure as a percentage of GDP (p = 0.0237) were positively associated with countries' case fatality rates. By contrast, hospital beds per capita helped to reduce the case fatality rates. In particular, the Democracy Index was positively associated with case fatality rates in a subgroup of 47 high-income countries. This study suggests that enhancing the health system with increased hospital beds and healthcare workforce per capita should reduce case fatality rate. The findings suggest that a higher Democracy Index is associated with more deaths from COVID-19 at the early stage of the pandemic, possibly due to the decreased ability of the government.